Longtime readers might remember when West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, members of his administration and state Republican leadership were over the moon about the state being ranked No. 1 in the nation for personal income growth in the first quarter of 2019.Â
Justice, now a Republican U.S. senator, linked the success to his policies at the time. Then the revisions came. Turns out, after more accurate data was acquired, the state was 47th in the nation for income growth in the first quarter of 2019, nowhere near No. 1.Â
One man who saw it coming was West Virginia Center on Budget & Policy senior analyst Sean O'Leary, who warned at the time of the announcement that the numbers were likely inaccurate. He was right. The report had been skewed by temporary pipeline construction jobs. Most of those jobs existed when the initial income survey was taken but were gone by the end of the first fiscal quarter. By the time the full picture was revealed, obviously the news was nothing to celebrate.Â
Stories like this were soon forgotten with the onset of the COVID pandemic, which presented an entirely new set of challenges for the economy, rightly viewed as secondary to public health concerns in most places around the United States. Regardless, revisions to economic reports and labor statistics, whether it's income, jobs or unemployment, are routine and can, at times, be quite drastic.
A very recent example would be the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shaving national job growth numbers from 144,000 down to 19,000 for the month of May. The BLS also knocked initial job gains of 147,000 in June down to 14,000, once more complete information was available.Â
Job growth revisions are not conducted on a whim, but because companies are sometimes late in producing survey data or make mistakes. The BLS also needs time to factor in unemployment insurance records from each state which, according to The Associated Press, are not available when the initial jobs reports are put together.Â
The May and June reports have garnered national attention because President Donald Trump didn't like the numbers and decided to shoot the messenger, firing BLS Director Erika McEntarfer. Trump whined that the job numbers were "rigged" against him in a political ploy to make him "look bad."Â
There is, of course, no evidence to support Trump's claim.Â
Trump is quite capable of making himself look bad without assistance, and firing the director of a nonpartisan agency for releasing accurate information doesn't help. Once again it reveals Trump's fragility, incompetence and paranoia, along with a persecution complex that flies in the face of the image of strength the president thinks he projects.Â
The infantile move also potentially creates problems that affect everyone else.Â
If McEntarfer's replacement is expected to fudge numbers to please the president, it's yet another assault on basic truths, which is troubling enough. However, these statistics also shape economic plans and investments. If business owners and investors can't trust the numbers, what will that do to the economy? If other nations can't trust the numbers, what does that do?Â
Also, no amount of fudging can hide the truth as it pertains to things as basic as job growth. If the president claims jobs are up when they're not, the truth is borne out in very real terms that affect Americans on a personal level. It's the same with anything else. The president can claim inflation is down, but that doesn't do anything to help anyone if prices remain high.Â
At a certain point, facts are no longer negotiable. Pretending otherwise will only erode trust in government further and possibly inflict real economic damage on the nation and its people. Â
