Students returning to school, and West Virginia is facing a stark reality: fewer students attending public schools, which means reduced funding.
These losses in enrollment are due to a number of factors, including declining birth rates. The pandemic also played a role as more American workers shifted to remote work, freeing families to move around the country and live where they want.
West Virginia’s public schools have seen a 12% drop in student enrollment over the past 10 years and are projected to lose another 14% over the next decade. Because school funding is linked to student enrollment, public schools are facing a significant decrease in revenue. School districts already shutting down under-enrolled schools and, without action, more schools in West Virginia will likely have to close.
West Virginia is not alone. Public schools served 1.2 million fewer students in 2022-23 than in the last year before the pandemic, with 37 states and two-thirds of school districts experiencing a decline. Looking ahead, public schools, including public charter schools, will lose an additional 2.4 million students by 2031. That’s an additional decrease of almost 5%.
While West Virginia students today worry about their syllabus, supplies and the end of summer, state leaders need to start worrying about how they will address this decline. The good news is they can plan ahead with policy solutions designed to mitigate and minimize future harm.
To get ahead of the coming financial crunch, states can require school districts to submit multi-year strategic finance plans that include credible enrollment projections and maintain reserve funds to buffer against sudden enrollment declines. Simplifying funding formulas and lifting rigid spending requirements— like mandated staffing ratios — would give districts the flexibility to allocate resources more efficiently while tying funding to student success.
If a reduction in force is necessary, potential layoffs should be based on teacher performance rather than seniority to ensure schools retain their most effective educators. Contracts should not be locked in before funding levels are known.
States can also help districts operate more efficiently by promoting school-level financial transparency and incentivizing collaboration across districts — such as sharing classes or extracurricular programs. More flexible staffing models, including part-time and specialized staff, would allow schools to adjust their workforce to meet changing needs. Surplus teachers from shrinking districts could be redeployed to fill hard-to-staff roles, especially in high-need subjects or rural areas.
Meanwhile, underutilized school buildings can be repurposed for community uses or affordable teacher housing, and facility usage can be aligned with performance-based incentives. Another approach empowers a neutral oversight authority to make sure that all classroom space is effectively utilized.
As more students choose schools that are not nearby, rethinking student transportation through a regional lens can help districts operate more efficiently in the face of demographic shifts.
Finally, policymakers in West Virginia can give schools districts more flexibility by simplifying the state’s funding formula and eliminating spending restrictions. Strengthening student-centered funding by increasing base amounts and weights for high-need students ensures resources follow those who need them most. States can also offer outcome-based funding bonuses for districts whose students successfully enroll in college, enter the workforce or enlist in the military.
Implementing some or all of these policy solutions, West Virginia could be able to slow down enrollment-related losses and work toward a future where students remain centered and set up for success. Enrollment decline is not a far-off issue. It’s happening right now — and it’s unlikely to reverse course. State leaders need to help districts and educators by giving them the time and support to make the best decision for their students.
